Analysis blog in regard to The Joburg Open and The RSM Classic – November 19 to 22.

Hi,

we made 8 points profit last week. Both our weekend in play bets won. Also Brandon Stone placed in South Africa. I will go in to more detail in regard to how our bets fared below.

 

The Joburg Open at Randpark golf club.

Joachim B Hansen won his first tournament on the main European Tour by outlasting Wilco Nienaber by two strokes on Sunday. The Dane was a winner on the Challenge Tour previously but this was his breakthrough win on the bigger stage. I did predict in the in play post that Nienaber would have some nerves if closing in on his first win at his young age and it turned out to be the case. Nienaber went off fast and took a three stroke lead. However Hansen ground it out over the final nine holes and Wilco cracked under the pressure. But Nienaber looks a big talent and is young and has a lot more to come. We will be watching him for a future win on tour.

In third place was Shaun Norris , who carded a 66 on Sunday, one behind Nienaber. Norris, a South African, mostly plies his trade on the Asian Tours and is a good player with lots of experience. Our bet on Brandon Stone placed as he finished in a tie for fourth. Brandon looked as if he was going to challenge at various times during the tournament but never quite did. Not the first time he has done this.

Our other each way bet, Zander Lombard, faded out of the places over the weekend and finished in a tie for 15th. Zander was 100/1+ to start with and is the type of player you can take a chance on when he goes off at such a price, especially in his home country. He is very much hit or miss most of the time. Tied with him at 15th was the pre tournament favourite, Christian Bezuidenhout. He was not much value at 14/1 after his exertions on the USPGA Tour, but is an up and coming player.

Adrien Otaegui of Spain went off second favourite but was pretty average down in 51st place. Garrick Higgo was well fancied but finished 61st. Joost Luiten struggled yet again and is definitely one to avoid until further notice. He missed the cut here.

So, a decent tournament that we made a profit on in mostly nice weather.

 

The RSM Classic at Sea Island.

Robert Streb (pictured above) won on the second extra hole of a play off against Kevin Kisner to convert his three stroke overnight lead for the win. Streb struggled on Sunday until he was caught for the lead and then passed by the fast finishing Kevin Kisner, carding a 63, but then improved over the final few holes to force a play off. He then won with a birdie on the second extra hole after hitting his approach shot to 15 inches. Streb won here in 2010 and this was Kisner’s 7th loss in a play off. So our in play bet was successful.

The course played easy on Sunday and there were a number of low scores carded. The golfers in the next places all did so. Cameron Tringale finished one off the lead with a final round 62. He just could not squeeze out another birdie to get into the play off. Tringale does bubble under in tournaments but never quite gets it done. Tied in fourth place was a back to form Bernd Weisberger and the consistent Andrew Landry. We will look out for Weisberger if he returns to the European Tour for the Race To Dubai before Christmas.

Harris English, who we tried to back at the halfway stage, finished in a tie for sixth. He had a sticky Saturday but got his game back for Sunday and carded a 62. Including those tied with English was Camillo Villegas. Camillo left the tour when his young daughter was diagnosed with cancer. Tragically she died earlier this year and he returned to the Korn Ferry Tour and the Main Tour a few months ago and looks to have got his game back together. We wish him and his family well. Corey Conners had a good weekend with a 66 and 64 for a tie of tenth place. Jason Day put together four good rounds to tie for twelfth. If Day can stay fit he can still win on tour.

Tyrrel Hatton carded a 65 on Sunday and finished tied 23rd. As I said in my preview he may be suffering a bit from fatigue, mental and physical, after an extended run of playing. Other home grown players, Matt Wallace and Tommy Fleetwood, were tied 37th, along with Webb Simpson, one of our pre tournament bets. Webb has an excellent course record and has a home nearby. However he looked to be not fully focused this week. Maybe being at home with his wife and five children is not his best way to focus on a tournament? Ian Poulter was down the field in a tie for 50th and may be another one who is fatigued after playing regularly for several months?

The following players missed the cut – Charl Schwartzel, CT Pan (who went well at The Masters), Justin Rose (who was disappointing again), our pre tournmanet bets Sungjae Im (back to his bad form) and Mackenzie Hughes (who had course form here), Matt Fitzpatrick (he likes tough courses not easy ones), Louis Oosthuizen ( he only plays well at Majors and the big ones) and Lee Westwood (two poor rounds).

As Sea Island is a fairly easy to play if the wind does not blow the form here may not reflect how a golfer plays when we get back to tougher courses and vice versa.

 

I will be back Tuesday PM with selections for the tournaments that start on Thursday.

 

Please feel free to express an opinion on anything golf by emailing [email protected]. We reply to all who contact us.

 

Regards Martin