Analysis blog of The Hero Open and The WGC FedEx St Jude – July 30 – Aug 2.
Hi,
a bad week for our bets. Some close shaves but a loss of 12.25 points overall. We did an audit of past results as we are now proofing directly to Smart Betting Club. Our cumulative profit for 2020 is now +81.075 points.
Firstly the Hero Arden at The Forest Of Arden – Rasmus Hojgaard had two good rounds and two average rounds. However he was in contention going into the final round, being only one stroke off the lead. He did start the final round well enough but found that chasing Sam Horsfield a bit much and faded on the back nine. He did have a putt for a full place finish on the 18th but missed it and had to do with a part place finish, so costing us a full place dividend. As he is only nineteen we have to give him the benefit of the doubt here. He has won on tour already in 2020 and has the potential to be a star.
The tournament winner was Sam Horsfield, who can go very low but can also score high! He did go clear in the final round, had a blip but held on to win by one stroke from Thomas Detry, who missed a putt on the last which would have forced a play off. Detry at last came back to some form and we will look to be with him going forward now if there is value.
Alexander Bjoerk was solid all week in a tie for third but was never in a position to challenge. Joost Luiten continues to play badly. I did not take much from the rest of the field on what is a straight forward course.
WGC Fed Ex St.Jude Invitational.
Our in play bet went close here but then had disasters on the 16th and 18th. Brook Koepka led at the 15th but it all came apart and allowed Justin Thomas to have a three stroke win. A missed putt by Koepka on the last green cost us a full place and we ended up with a part place. Thomas made the most of some good breaks on the finals stretch to win here and move to world number one. Our two predictions for world number one have now flip flopped for that ranking in the past week.
Daniel Berger played well again finishing three off the winner despite an opening round 71. However the course did suit him and next week it may be different? Phil Mickelson was good over the weekend to equal Berger and Koepka. Scores of 66 and 67 were impressive. Tom Lewis and Matt Fitzpatrick flew the flag for England and were both flying until the final few holes. Lewis looks as if he can score low and Fitzpatrick is good when conditions and courses are hard. Both potential top 20 bets at The USPGA Championships this week.
Shane Lowry played well on a course that did not really suit him. Jason Day looked fit and played well, but you have to fear his back troubles re occurring. Xander Schauffele looked to be back in form and scored 67 and 66 over the weekend. We will be interested in him this coming week at the right odds.
Tony Finau was awful in the final round again and lost us our match bet against Patrick Reed, who played average all week. Finau joins Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama on our list of golfers not to back until they actually win another tournament. Collin Morikawa played OK but could not get it going all week and will come again in 2020. Mackenzie Hughes played OK and as a 150/1 shot you take your chance that he will fire. He did not.
Webb Simpson and Dustin Johnson were solid and may challenge at the USPGA Championships if they can get their putter working? Brendon Todd led after 54 holes but his hot putter went cold and he finished with a 75. Byeong Hun An was up there going into the final round, but he is not a good putter and finished with a 73. Abraham Ancer had a 75 in round two but went 65 and 66 over the weekend. If he can stamp out that one bad round a tournament he can contend any week.
So it ended in a bad week for us punting wise. But golf is ups and downs and we can win again soon and hit that 120 points profit target without too much worry.
This weeks selections will be published Wednesday lunch time. I will send you an email to let you know that they are now available. As the USPGA Championships are in San Francisco we have a late start on Thursday in the U.S.
Stay safe Martin