I’m sure most of you have seen, heard, or read, about the shock news that came out last week, after being at loggerheads for nearly 18 months, the PGA, DP World and LIV (Saudi public investment fund) tours have somehow managed to reconcile their differences (amazing what money can do), and have agreed to merge .
I don’t really wish to get into the politics of all this as I’d rather stay in my lane, which is betting/investment, and from that standpoint this move is absolutely music to my ears. It’s been clear to see that many other golf tipsters’ results have taken a hit since the introduction of LIV, as what the breakaway tour did has weakened the top end of the betting market, which in turn has made the middle of the market (40/1 to 80/1) very soft, and reduced each-way value quite significantly.
Having made some adjustments to my algorithms a few months ago which put a little more emphasis into those shorter odds selections, the results have turned around with both winners and runner-up finishes.
That being said, I completely welcome the reintroduction of players such as Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, and Cameron Smith into our weekly fields once again, as that will in turn increase the odds of those ‘outsiders’ that can provide value.
I’m not clear as to how the golf landscape is going to look over the next few months, especially what will happen with LIV. But what I am sure about is that this should be a positive for both me and Golfbetsgold subscribers.
On to the non-value of certain golfers in the betting markets – we will use this weeks U.S. Open for this purpose. Let’s consider some golfers towards the top of the market.
Rory McIlroy – when did he last win a major? 2014. He was in contention last week on Sunday in the RBC Canadian Open, a tournament he has won the two years it had been played previously. What happened? He struggled and dropped away when he needed to be going for it. So, is 11/1 value this week on a course he has no experience on? I would say that the answer is a solid NO.
Xander Schauffele – has not won a major yet in his career. Has not won on tour since July 2022 . I listen to many golf podcasts each week and he has been touted very strongly by American pundits. But is 18/1 value?
Patrick Cantlay – Has not won a major yet in his career. Has a tendency to struggle with the putter in final rounds when in contention. Does not have a good record in majors. Has not won on tour since the BMW Championship in the 2022 play offs . So is he value at 16/1?
Viktor Hovland – has not won a major yet in his career. OK, he won on tour two weeks ago, and so has the best current form of these guys. But has his chipping around the green improved enough to contend on this tough course? Is the 16/1 value?
I could go on, but I won’t. You can find value at the top of the market sometimes. This week Scottie Scheffler is 7/1. He is well clear of anyone else on all metrics apart from one, putting, which he is struggling with. He has been fiddling around with various putters earlier this week. If he finds one that works, then he will be very hard to beat. If he was putting well recently he would be 4/1 this week.
Jon Rahm has a good record in majors and was unbeatable earlier in 2023. Since the birth of his second child his form has been erratic. But he has a very good record in recent majors, and so I can see why the bookmakers do not want to go beyond 9/1.
Anyway, a bit of background to my thought processes. I do profile all golfers on the relevant tours and build useful information in to my algorithm. I remain confident that we can average 100 points profit on selections every calendar year.